Explaining change in independence–unification views in Taiwan: a within-between model

Abstract

Independence–unification (IU) views have been profoundly influential in Taiwan politics. This study uses the rally ‘round the flag effect to explain the increase in support for Taiwan independence after President Tsai Ing-wen rejected China’s ‘one country, two systems’ proposal. Taking advantage of within individual differences in panel data, we can estimate the probability of IU views given a set of certain characteristics compared with other values of those characteristics and ascertain the influence of change in variables such as approval of the president’s handling cross-Strait relations at different time points. Our preliminary results show that Taiwanese people indeed change their IU views due to the external and domestic environment. People who perceive that the economy has improved and whose views on President Tsai have become more favorable tend to flock towards the independence side. People whose views of President Tsai’s handling of cross-Strait relations have become more favorable also move towards independence. If we only consider differences between individuals, feelings about the KMT and DPP stand out as significant predictors of IU views.